High inventory continues to define the Texas housing market this summer, with every major metro feeling the pressure of increased supply. For buyers, that means more options and stronger negotiating power, while sellers must adjust expectations and pricing strategies.

In Austin, the median home price in July settled at around $425,000, reflecting only a modest 2–3% decline year-over-year. Inventory climbed to its highest point in two years, with over half of listings seeing price reductions. Even so, buyer interest is beginning to stir, as pending sales posted a slight increase. Meanwhile, San Antonio has fared slightly better on pricing, with median home values at about $330,000. However, sales volume has slowed, and inventory has expanded to nearly six months of supply—firmly shifting conditions in favor of buyers.

The Rio Grande Valley markets tell a different story. In Brownsville–Harlingen, June’s median sale price hovered near $270,000, with average values holding steady year-over-year and showing only minimal declines. McAllen continues to post healthy growth, with a median price near $250,000 and homes selling relatively quickly, often within just over a month. This steady appreciation highlights the Valley as a bright spot in an otherwise cautious statewide market.

On the rental side, conditions remain surprisingly stable. In Austin, rates are down less than 1% compared to last year, but most leases still achieve 99% of list price. Steady rental demand offers some balance to the sales slowdown, reinforcing Texas’s overall housing resilience.

Looking ahead, much of the market is in a holding pattern, waiting for the Federal Reserve to deliver long-awaited rate cuts. A meaningful drop in interest rates could spark a new wave of buyer activity, helping absorb excess inventory and stabilize price trends. Until then, buyers will continue to benefit from more choices and negotiating power, while sellers must stay flexible and strategic in order to achieve their goals.